New scientific analysis released today by the Pacific Community (SPC) shows that climate change is transforming Pacific fisheries and aquaculture at every scale, from coastal communities to oceanic tuna stocks. The findings are published through SPC’s new regional assessment, Climate Change Implications for Fisheries and Aquaculture in the Pacific Islands Region, launched at COP30 in Belém.
Drawing on contributions from 32 scientific institutions across the Pacific and beyond, co-design of layout with fisheries officials from the region, and peer-review from around the globe, the book provides the region's most current and comprehensive evidence base for climate-informed decision-making.
The launch of the book comes at a critical moment. Honourable Steven Victor Palau’s Minister for Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Environment said the assessment makes Palau’s climate risks unmistakably clear, commenting on the Palau country specific chapter.
“The science shows projected declines of 21–29 per cent in coastal fisheries catches by 2050 and growing threats to our aquaculture systems. Under high-emissions scenarios, Palauans could face a shortfall of 9 kilograms of aquatic food per person. Fish is our primary protein and central to our identity, these figures matter. What this chapter provides is not only the diagnosis but the pathway forward.”
The book brings together updated data on warming trends, declining habitat quality and the shifting distribution of key species. Tropical Pacific waters have warmed by around one degree since pre-industrial times, with increased stratification and lower oxygen levels impacting marine productivity.
These shifts are already affecting one of the region’s most important assets. In 2021, the Western and Central Pacific accounted for 56% of global tuna production, yet the book's projections show tuna biomass shifting as waters warm, reducing catches in several Pacific Exclusive Economic Zones and placing pressure on national revenue.
Speaking during the launch, UN Special Envoy for the Ocean Ambassador Peter Thomson highlighted why this new assessment matters.
“This scientific resource presents practical, data-driven priorities for adaptation, community resilience, governance and regional coordination. To get climate planning right, we must trust the best available science.”
Coastal fisheries, extensively analysed in the book are also under growing strain. The publication documents that coastal subsistence fisheries produced 123,961 tonnes in 2021, and coastal commercial fisheries added 49,963 tonnes.
With seafood providing up to 90% of dietary animal protein in some countries, the book shows how coral bleaching, habitat degradation and population growth are widening the food-security gap.
Freshwater systems and aquaculture receive similarly detailed treatment in the book’s sector chapters. Papua New Guinea’s inland fisheries produced 23,000 tonnes in 2021, while Fiji’s freshwater clam fishery yields 4,000–7,000 tonnes annually.
Aquaculture, producing 7,573 tonnes valued at USD 85.3 million, faces risks from warming temperatures, disease and ocean acidification affecting mariculture species. These insights are among the book’s most practical contributions, linking climate drivers to national development outcomes.
Lead author Dr Johanna E. Johnson highlighted why updating the 2011 version of this assessment was essential:
“Climate change poses unprecedented threats to aquatic resources in the Pacific Islands region and the communities that depend on them. This assessment extends the earlier work with the latest science to inform future management and planning for this critical sector.”
Co-author Colette Wabnitz added that the book reflects both scientific and regional priorities:
“The Pacific Islands are at the frontlines of a changing climate and a changing ocean. This book provides the science needed to understand how climate change is reshaping fisheries and aquaculture and the benefits they deliver, and how governance and adaptation can secure resilient futures for both people and the sea.”
SPC’s Director of Fisheries, Neville Smith, emphasised the strategic value of the book in full:
“This scientific resource is much more than an updated assessment of the vulnerability of Pacific Island fisheries and aquaculture to climate change. It is an essential evidence source for anyone wanting to understand climate change impacts on the region's oceanic, coastal and freshwater fisheries and aquaculture, and make climate-informed decisions for a sustainable future”.
Mr Smith added that the 22 Pacific Island Country and Territory chapters are particularly valuable. They translate regional science into national realities, providing each Pacific Island nation with tailored projections and adaptation priorities that can be acted upon immediately.
“Maintaining Pacific benefits from fisheries and aquaculture is a growing challenge. Success over the long-term will depend on our ability to recognise and adapt to the many drivers affecting fish production and use, particularly the uncertainty and variability of climate change.
“Climate change will test our determination, ingenuity and capacity to work together for a common purpose. There is too much at stake for us not to rise to the challenge.”
By consolidating ecological modelling, socioeconomic analysis and national case studies, the book offers a clear set of priorities: strengthened community-based fisheries management, coastal habitat restoration, climate-resilient aquaculture, improved governance and better integration of oceanic fisheries into national nutrition strategies.
With its release at COP30, the publication positions the Pacific Islands region not only as a source of climate-impacted data, but as a global leader in climate-informed fisheries science. It provides the evidence governments and partners need to chart a resilient, well-informed path for Pacific food systems and blue economies.
Download the book here.
For more information contact:
- Coral Pasisi, Director, Division of Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability, Pacific Community (SPC), [email protected]
- Neville Smith, Director, Division of Fisheries, Aquaculture and Marine Ecosystems, Pacific Community (SPC), [email protected]
- Marie Lecomte, Climate Change Project Development Specialist for Coastal Fisheries and Aquaculture, Fisheries, Aquaculture and Marine Ecosystems (FAME) Pacific Community (SPC), [email protected]
The Pacific at COP30:
The 30th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is taking place from 10-21 November 2025 in Belem, Brazil.
It is being attended by Pacific leaders and their delegations, who are advocating for the survival of Pacific communities who continue to be at the forefront of climate change impacts.
Support for our Pacific Islands at COP30 is coordinated through the One CROP mechanism led by the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) with Pacific Islands Development Program, Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Agency, Pacific Island Forum Secretariat, Pacific ocean commissioner and Pacific Community.
